{"id":1052,"date":"2012-02-17T15:37:13","date_gmt":"2012-02-17T14:37:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/2012\/02\/17\/zasah-v-syrii-zabijeni-vystupuje-nezastavi-je\/"},"modified":"2012-02-17T15:37:13","modified_gmt":"2012-02-17T14:37:13","slug":"zasah-v-syrii-zabijeni-vystupuje-nezastavi-je","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/2012\/02\/17\/zasah-v-syrii-zabijeni-vystupuje-nezastavi-je\/","title":{"rendered":"Z\u00e1sah v S\u00fdrii zab\u00edjen\u00ed vystup\u0148uje, nezastav\u00ed je"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"syrieRusko a \u010c\u00edna zablokovaly v\u00fdzvu k vynucen\u00ed zm\u011bny re\u017eimu. Ale vyjednan\u00e9 uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed je jedinou cestou, jak se vyhnout ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, krvav\u00e1 cena, ji\u017e Arabov\u00e9 mus\u00ed zaplatit za sv\u00e9 \u201ejaro\u201c, nezn\u00e1 omezen\u00ed. Po krveprolit\u00ed v Egypt\u011b, Jemenu, Bahrajnu a Libyi je i 11 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f star\u00e9 povst\u00e1n\u00ed v S\u00fdrii st\u00e1le stra\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. \u010cty\u0159i dny bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed vzbou\u0159enci kontrolovan\u00fdch \u010dtvrt\u00ed syrsk\u00e9ho m\u011bsta Homs p\u0159inesly \u00fad\u011bsn\u00e9 obrazy a zpr\u00e1vy z bojov\u00e9 ba\u0161ty opozice Bab al-Amr: me\u0161ity pln\u00e9 um\u00edraj\u00edc\u00edch, ulice zasypan\u00e9 kusy t\u011bl, obytn\u00e9 oblasti rozbit\u00e9 na padr\u0165.<\/p>\n

Televizn\u00ed z\u00e1znamy v arabsk\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b jsou st\u00e1le k\u0159iklav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a dopad ot\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Bez ohledu na tvrzen\u00ed o po\u010dtech mrtv\u00fdch na obou stran\u00e1ch je rozsah lidsk\u00e9ho utrpen\u00ed z\u0159ejm\u00fd – a p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed po t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 roce neust\u00e1l\u00e9ho prol\u00e9v\u00e1n\u00ed krve, mu\u010den\u00ed a mstiv\u00fdch sekt\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee kdy\u017e Rusko a \u010c\u00edna vetovaly sobotn\u00ed (4. \u00fanora; pozn.p\u0159ekl.) z\u00e1padem podporovanou rezoluci OSN, odsuzuj\u00edc\u00ed re\u017eim Bashara al-Assada, po\u017eaduj\u00edc\u00ed, aby se jeho jednotky st\u00e1hly do kas\u00e1ren, a podporuj\u00edc\u00ed pl\u00e1n Arabsk\u00e9 ligy na jeho vyst\u0159\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed, ameri\u010dt\u00ed a brit\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159ed\u00e1ci a jejich spojenci, papou\u0161kovan\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edmi sd\u011blovac\u00edmi prost\u0159edky, se c\u00edtili schopni to odsoudit coby \u201eodporn\u00fd\u201c a \u201ehanebn\u00fd\u201c akt zrady na Sy\u0159anech.  <\/p>\n

Ale to p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu vnucenou zven\u010d\u00ed, co\u017e je to, co by rezoluce znamenala, kdyby bu\u010f fungovala, vstoupila v platnost nebo dokonce zastavila zab\u00edjen\u00ed. Vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm \u201epolitick\u00e9ho procesu\u201c s p\u0159edem rozhodnut\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem sta\u017een\u00ed syrsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy z ulic bez sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho t\u00e9ho\u017e po\u017eadavku v\u016f\u010di ozbrojen\u00fdm povstaleck\u00fdm skupin\u00e1m a napln\u011bn\u00edm b\u011bhem jedenadvaceti dn\u016f – s ustanoven\u00edm \u201edal\u0161\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed\u201c v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u201enespolupracov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c – by tak\u00e9 vydl\u00e1\u017edila cestu k zahrani\u010dn\u00edmu vojensk\u00e9mu z\u00e1sahu.   <\/p>\n

Obecn\u011b se tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee dvoj\u00ed veto dalo Assadovi zelenou k zes\u00edlen\u00ed repres\u00ed a zv\u00fd\u0161ilo pravd\u011bpodobnost ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v pln\u00e9m rozsahu. Ale vylou\u010den\u00edm z\u00e1sahu, podpo\u0159en\u00e9ho OSN, by se tak\u00e9 dalo tvrdit, \u017ee tak bude vyvinut\u00fd tlak na hlavn\u00ed opozi\u010dn\u00ed uskupen\u00ed, z\u00e1padem podporovanou Syrskou n\u00e1rodn\u00ed radu, k vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed – jestli\u017ee je cel\u00e1 jej\u00ed strategie zalo\u017eena na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed podm\u00ednek k bezletov\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b na libyjsk\u00fd zp\u016fsob.<\/p>\n

Rusko a \u010c\u00edna pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed S\u00fdrii ke vzdorov\u00e1n\u00ed pokusu z\u00e1padu p\u0159izp\u016fsobit arabsk\u00e1 povst\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdm vlastn\u00edm z\u00e1jm\u016fm. Veto pos\u00edlilo ruskou kartu s Assadov\u00fdm re\u017eimem, zat\u00edmco ru\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 soukrom\u011b ujistili p\u0159ed\u00e1ky opozice, \u017ee spor je se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty, ne s nimi. A Barack Obama te\u010f sl\u00edbil, \u017ee \u201ese bude sna\u017eit to vy\u0159e\u0161it bez pomoci vojensk\u00e9ho z\u00e1sahu zven\u010d\u00ed\u201c. <\/p>\n

Ale k tomu, aby byl vylou\u010den\u00fd, je daleko. Ameri\u010dt\u00ed, brit\u0161t\u00ed a francouz\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159ed\u00e1ci jsou zabran\u00ed do sestavov\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00e9 koalice ochotn\u00fdch se sv\u00fdmi autokratick\u00fdmi spojenci ze Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie a ze Z\u00e1livu, satiricky pojmenovan\u00e9 \u201ep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9 demokratick\u00e9 S\u00fdrie\u201c, aby vybudovali opozici a zbavili Assada moci. <\/p>\n

Z\u00e1sah u\u017e ve skute\u010dnosti prob\u00edh\u00e1. Sa\u00fadov\u00e9 a Kata\u0159an\u00e9 \u00fadajn\u011b financuj\u00ed a vyzbrojuj\u00ed opozici. Svobodn\u00e1 syrsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da m\u00e1 bezpe\u010dn\u00fd r\u00e1j v Turecku. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed speci\u00e1ln\u00ed jednotky slibuj\u00ed pozemn\u00ed vojenskou podporu. A kdy\u017e to nevyjde, OSN lze obej\u00edt dovol\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm se \u201ezodpov\u011bdnosti za ochranu\u201c civilist\u016f pod\u00e9l hranic. <\/p>\n

Nic z toho ale nezastav\u00ed zab\u00edjen\u00ed. To bude nar\u016fstat. To je jasn\u00e9 pou\u010den\u00ed z lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho z\u00e1sahu NATO v Libyi. Ten kdy\u017e za\u010dal, po\u010det mrtv\u00fdch byl 1-2 000. Ne\u017e byl Muammar Kadd\u00e1f\u00ed o sedm m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f pozd\u011bji zajat a lyn\u010dov\u00e1n, tento po\u010det narostl odhadem v\u00edc ne\u017e desetin\u00e1sobn\u011b. D\u011bdictv\u00edm zahrani\u010dn\u00edho z\u00e1sahu v Libyi jsou tak\u00e9 masov\u00e9 etnick\u00e9 \u010distky, mu\u010den\u00ed a v\u011bzn\u011bn\u00ed bez soudu, trvaj\u00edc\u00ed ozbrojen\u00fd konflikt, a z\u00e1padem dirigovan\u00e1 spr\u00e1va, s tak nevysv\u011btliteln\u00fdm vzdorem odhalit jm\u00e9na sv\u00fdch \u010dlen\u016f.   <\/p>\n

Rusko a \u010c\u00edna vyslaly sign\u00e1l, \u017ee u\u017e nebude dal\u0161\u00edch OSN sankcionovan\u00fdch Liby\u00ed. Ale pro USA, Brit\u00e1nii a jejich spojence nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 holdovat mor\u00e1ln\u00edm postoj\u016fm nad S\u00fdri\u00ed nebo se pasovat na p\u0159\u00e1tele jej\u00edho lidu. Oni p\u0159ece nejsou zodpov\u011bdn\u00ed za stovky tis\u00edc mrtv\u00fdch v Ir\u00e1ku a Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu, nebo \u0159ekn\u011bme za diktaturu v Bahrajnu – pr\u00e1v\u011b kdy\u017e potla\u010duje sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed povst\u00e1n\u00ed a p\u0159itom sponzoruje rezoluci OSN za p\u0159echod k demokracii v S\u00fdrii. Cel\u00fdch 45 let se podepisuj\u00ed pod izraelskou okupaci Golansk\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161in, a p\u0159esto te\u010f slibuj\u00ed, \u017ee S\u00fdrii zaru\u010d\u00ed \u201e\u00fazemn\u00ed celistvost\u201c.      <\/p>\n

Syrsk\u00e1 krize prob\u00edh\u00e1 v n\u011bkolika \u00farovn\u00edch. Jej\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed je lidov\u00e9 povst\u00e1n\u00ed proti autorit\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9mu, nacionalistick\u00e9mu re\u017eimu, jen\u017e si st\u00e1le udr\u017euje v\u00fdznamnou podporu ve\u0159ejnosti. Tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 trval\u00e9 represi ono povst\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1le v\u00edc z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 rysy n\u011b\u010deho, co unikl\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va mise Arabsk\u00e9 ligy popisuje jako \u201eozbrojenou entitu\u201c.   
Konflikt na sebe tak\u00e9 vzal zlov\u011bstn\u011b sekt\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd rozm\u011br, kdy\u017e Alawity ovl\u00e1dan\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed ma\u0161in\u00e9rie t\u011b\u017e\u00ed ze strachu men\u0161in z drtiv\u00e9 p\u0159evahy sunnitsk\u00e9 opozice. Z toho d\u016fvodu se vzedmula vlna \u010distek a zab\u00edjen\u00ed v ir\u00e1ck\u00e9m a libanonsk\u00e9m stylu.   <\/p>\n

Ale t\u0159et\u00edm rozm\u011brem je to, co zp\u016fsobilo, \u017ee krize je tak toxick\u00e1 v oblasti, kde se z\u00e1pad a jeho arab\u0161t\u00ed klienti sna\u017e\u00ed obr\u00e1tit tok arabsk\u00e9ho procitnut\u00ed ve svoji vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdhodu vyvol\u00e1n\u00edm konfliktu s Teher\u00e1nem.     <\/p>\n

Svr\u017een\u00ed syrsk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu by bylo v\u00e1\u017enou ranou \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu vlivu na St\u0159edn\u00edm v\u00fdchod\u011b. A stejn\u011b jako se vyost\u0159uje konflikt v S\u00fdrii, tot\u00e9\u017e se d\u011bje v konfrontaci z\u00e1padu a Izraele s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Dokonce kdy\u017e ministr obrany USA Leon Panetta a \u0161\u00e9f zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby James Clapper, p\u0159ipustili, \u017ee se \u00cdr\u00e1n nakonec \u201enesna\u017e\u00ed vyvinout jadernou zbra\u0148\u201c, Panetta se nechal sly\u0161et, \u017ee je \u201evelmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9\u201c, \u017ee Izrael za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed u\u017e v dubnu na \u00cdr\u00e1n, kdy\u017e \u00cdr\u00e1n \u010del\u00ed ochromuj\u00edc\u00edm ropn\u00fdm sankc\u00edm EU za sv\u016fj jadern\u00fd program.     <\/p>\n

Z\u00e1sah z\u00e1padu v S\u00fdrii – a s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou jej odm\u00edtnuv\u0161\u00edmi – se v t\u00e9to souvislosti d\u00e1 ch\u00e1pat jedin\u011b takto: coby sou\u010d\u00e1st z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, je\u017e katastrof\u00e1ln\u011b hroz\u00ed, \u017ee se stane p\u0159\u00edmou. Zat\u00edm m\u00e1lo n\u00e1znak\u016f, \u017ee by syrsk\u00fd re\u017eim \u010di opozice u\u010dinily rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed pr\u016flom.  <\/p>\n

Pokud si opozice nedok\u00e1\u017ee prost\u0159\u00edlet cestu k moci a re\u017eim se nezhrout\u00ed, jedin\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak neprohloubit ob\u010danskou v\u00e1lku, je vyjednan\u00e9 politick\u00e9 uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed, vedouc\u00ed ke skute\u010dn\u00fdm volb\u00e1m. K zachov\u00e1n\u00ed jak\u00e9si \u0161ance na \u00fasp\u011bch by te\u010f bylo pot\u0159ebn\u00e9, aby je zaru\u010dily hlavn\u00ed mocnosti v oblasti i mimo ni. Alternativa z\u00e1sahu z\u00e1padu a dikt\u00e1tora ze z\u00e1livu povede jen k v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu krveprolit\u00ed – a odep\u0159e Sy\u0159an\u016fm kontrolu nad jejich vlastn\u00ed zem\u00ed. <\/p>\n

Seumas Milne, the Guardian.co,uk (p\u0159eklad Vladim\u00edr Sedl\u00e1\u010dek)<\/em>
7 \u00fanora 2012<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rusko a \u010c\u00edna zablokovaly v\u00fdzvu k vynucen\u00ed zm\u011bny re\u017eimu. Ale vyjednan\u00e9 uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed je jedinou cestou, jak se vyhnout ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1051,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[9],"tags":[171,56,172,41,34],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1052"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1052"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1052\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1051"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1052"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1052"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1052"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}