{"id":1181,"date":"2012-04-23T16:24:45","date_gmt":"2012-04-23T14:24:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/2012\/04\/23\/syrie-cesta-ven\/"},"modified":"2012-04-23T16:24:45","modified_gmt":"2012-04-23T14:24:45","slug":"syrie-cesta-ven","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/2012\/04\/23\/syrie-cesta-ven\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u00fdrie: cesta ven"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"syrieP\u0159\u00edb\u011bh S\u00fdrie m\u00e1 dv\u011b verze. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Podle jedn\u00e9 drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina Sy\u0159an\u016f povstala proti brutalit\u011b zlo\u010dinn\u00e9 diktatury. Vl\u00e1da Bashara al Assada je v \u00fazk\u00fdch, izolovan\u00e1 v oblasti i mezin\u00e1rodn\u011b, a dr\u017e\u00ed se jen proto, \u017ee Rusko a \u010c\u00edna vetovaly z\u00e1sah OSN. Ministryn\u011b zahrani\u010d\u00ed USA Hillary Clintonov\u00e1 popisuje Assada jako \u201ev\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho zlo\u010dince\u201c a president Obama jej nazval \u201echod\u00edc\u00ed mrtvolou\u201c.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Podle druh\u00e9 zlov\u011bstn\u00e1 aliance feud\u00e1ln\u00edch arabsk\u00fdch monarchi\u00ed, USA a jejich evropsk\u00fdch spojenc\u016f a mud\u017eahedin\u016f z al-K\u00e1jdy cynicky vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed v\u011bc demokracie ke svr\u017een\u00ed vl\u00e1dy, ji\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina Sy\u0159an\u016f podporuje, k obratu sekul\u00e1rn\u00ed S\u00fdrie na ba\u0161tu islamismu, a k p\u0159em\u011bn\u011b Dama\u0161ku na oddan\u00e9ho spojence Washingtonu a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu a libanonsk\u00e9mu Hizballahu.<\/p>\n

Jako u v\u011bt\u0161iny p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh\u016f je pravda i smy\u0161lenka v obou verz\u00edch, ale odd\u011blit m\u00fdtus od skute\u010dnosti je zoufale d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, proto\u017ee S\u00fdrie le\u017e\u00ed ve strategick\u00e9m srdci St\u0159edn\u00edho v\u00fdchodu. Zm\u00fdlit se by mohlo spadnout jako domino z K\u00e1hiry na Ankaru, z z Bejr\u00fatu do Teher\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed pochyb, \u017ee demonstrace ze za\u010d\u00e1tku b\u0159ezna byly spont\u00e1nn\u00ed reakc\u00ed na uv\u011bzn\u011bn\u00ed a mu\u010den\u00ed n\u011bkolika \u0161kol\u00e1k\u016f syrskou vl\u00e1dou v Deraa. Nav\u00edc korupce Assadovy rodiny – ovl\u00e1daj\u00ed arm\u00e1du, bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slo\u017eky, v\u011bt\u0161inu telekomunikac\u00ed, bankovnictv\u00ed a stavebnictv\u00ed – spjat\u00e1 s plynem a brutalitou bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch sil podtrhuje hn\u011bv, jen\u017e \u017eiv\u00ed povst\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pravdou ale tak\u00e9 je, \u017ee hr\u00e1\u010di zven\u010d\u00ed – konkr\u00e9tn\u011b monarchie Rady pro spolupr\u00e1ci v Z\u00e1livu (GCC), USA i sunnitsk\u00e9 extremistick\u00e9 organizace – maj\u00ed v\u0161ichni \u017eel\u00edzka v ohni. Skute\u010dn\u011b, je \u0161tiplavou ironi\u00ed, \u017ee zat\u00edmco GCC odsuzuje S\u00fdrii za utla\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed jej\u00edch ob\u010dan\u016f, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie a Bahrajn drt\u00ed ve sv\u00fdch zem\u00edch dom\u00e1c\u00ed demokratick\u00e1 hnut\u00ed. Nebo \u017ee by Washington m\u011bl b\u00fdt na stejn\u00e9m seznamu jako sou\u010dasn\u00fd \u0161\u00e9f al-K\u00e1jdy Ayman al-Zawahiri.<\/p>\n

A zat\u00edmco tu je nepopirateln\u00e1 brutalita Assadova re\u017eimu, nebo to, \u017ee za minul\u00fd rok zem\u0159elo asi tak 7 500 \u2013 8 000 Sy\u0159an\u016f, izraelsk\u00fd vp\u00e1d do Gazy v l\u00e9tech 2008-09 (p\u0159i operaci \u010c\u00e1st Lead) zabil v\u00edc Palestinc\u016f, p\u0159epo\u010dteno v procentech na po\u010det obyvatel. Kdy\u017e se zem\u011b v oblasti sna\u017eily zastavit v\u00e1lku v Gaze, byly to Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, kdo zablokoval jakoukoli akci OSN. Dvoj\u00ed metr a pokrytectv\u00ed jsou na St\u0159edn\u00edm v\u00fdchod\u011b vysoce v kursu.<\/p>\n

Syrsk\u00e1 krize nen\u00ed pouhou \u201ezl\u00ed ho\u0161i versus hodn\u00ed ho\u0161i\u201c, demokrat\u00e9 versus dikt\u00e1tor, s drtivou v\u011bt\u0161inou st\u0159etnuv\u0161\u00ed se se zabarik\u00e1dovanou n\u00e1silnickou elitou.<\/p>\n

Za prv\u00e9, a\u010dkoli sou\u010dasn\u00e9 povst\u00e1n\u00ed je zastoupeno zna\u010dn\u00fdm po\u010dtem Sy\u0159an\u016f, Assad\u016fv re\u017eim m\u00e1 dom\u00e1c\u00ed podporu. Jak podot\u00fdk\u00e1 Jonathan Steele z britsk\u00e9ho den\u00edku the Guardian, ned\u00e1vn\u00fd pr\u016fzkum tazatelsk\u00e9 organizace You Gov Siraj o S\u00fdrii,\u00a0 objednan\u00fd u The Doha Debates a hrazen\u00fd z katarsk\u00fdch pen\u011bz, zjistil, \u017ee zat\u00edmco v\u011bt\u0161ina nesyrsk\u00fdch Arab\u016f chce, aby Assad odstoupil, 55 procent Sy\u0159an\u016f chce, aby z\u016fstal.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pr\u016fzkum sotva vyvol\u00e1 Assadovo potvrzen\u00ed – polovina z on\u011bch p\u011btapades\u00e1ti procent chce svobodn\u00e9 volby – ale odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed skute\u010dnost, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina Sy\u0159an\u016f se ob\u00e1v\u00e1 ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Co\u017e bude sotva p\u0159ekvapuj\u00edc\u00ed. Invaze USA do Ir\u00e1ku a n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed ob\u010dansk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka zaplavily S\u00fdrii miliony uprchl\u00edk\u016f a d\u011bsiv\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy vra\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed, mu\u010den\u00ed a sekt\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho krveprolit\u00ed. A Sy\u0159an\u00e9 sed\u011bli v prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b p\u0159i patn\u00e1ctilet\u00e9 ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce v Libanonu.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Syrsk\u00fd disident Salim Kheirbek \u0159ekl listu The New Yorker: \u201eV odporu nen\u00ed zapojeno v\u00edc ne\u017e 30 % lid\u00ed. Zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch 70 %, nen\u00ed li pr\u00e1v\u011b s re\u017eimem, je potichu, proto\u017ee to pro n\u011b nen\u00ed p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u00e9, zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 po tom, co se stalo v Ir\u00e1ku a v Libyi. Tihle lid\u00e9 cht\u011bj\u00ed reformy, ale ne za ka\u017edou cenu.\u201c<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco posledn\u00ed referendum o reform\u011b syrsk\u00e9 \u00fastavy \u0161iroce odm\u00edtly USA, Evropa a GCC, objevilo se, \u017ee t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 60 % voli\u010d\u016f p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017enou v\u011bt\u0161inu n\u00e1vrh\u016f podporuje.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00e1st podpory Assadova re\u017eimu p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed z men\u0161inov\u00fdch komunit, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm k\u0159es\u0165an\u016f a Alawit\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed tvo\u0159\u00ed 10, respektive 12 % z 24 mili\u00f3n\u016f Sy\u0159an\u016f. Alawit\u00e9 jsou druh \u0160\u00edit\u016f, kter\u00e1\u017eto sekta ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 vl\u00e1du. Sunnit\u00e9 tvo\u0159\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu. V S\u00fdrii jsou tak\u00e9 kurdsk\u00e9, dr\u00fazsk\u00e9, arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9, bedu\u00ednsk\u00e9 a turkmensk\u00e9 komunity. Odhaduje se, \u017ee v zemi je 47 r\u016fzn\u00fdch n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdch a etnick\u00fdch skupin.<\/p>\n

Alawit\u00e9 a k\u0159es\u0165an\u00e9 maj\u00ed d\u016fvod k obav\u00e1m. Jak ned\u00e1vno napsal New York Times, demonstranti v Hom\u011b, jednom ze st\u0159edisek povst\u00e1n\u00ed, skandovali \u201ek\u0159es\u0165an\u00e9 do Bejr\u00fatu, Alawit\u00e9 do hrobu\u201c. Al-K\u00e1ida trvale popisuje \u0160\u00edity jako \u201ekost v hrdle isl\u00e1mu\u201c a napad\u00e1 \u0161\u00editsk\u00e9 komunity v Ir\u00e1ku a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n

S\u00fdrie nen\u00ed izolovan\u00e1 n\u00e1bo\u017eensky ani mezin\u00e1rodn\u011b. I kdy\u017e Arabsk\u00e1 liga odsoudila Assadovu vl\u00e1du, ne ka\u017ed\u00fd v organizaci je na palub\u011b. Dama\u0161ek m\u00e1 podporu v Libanonu a Ir\u00e1ku, a Jord\u00e1nsko je v\u016f\u010di n\u00ed neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed (Amman si tak\u00e9 pamatuje chaos ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lky).\u00a0 Al\u017e\u00edrsko – severoafrick\u00fd velk\u00fd pes v bloku – je k Lize ost\u0159e kritick\u00e9.<\/p>\n

\u201eArabsk\u00e1 liga u\u017e nen\u00ed liga a Arab\u016fm je vzd\u00e1lena\u201c, \u0159ekl al\u017e\u00edrsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed zpravodaji Agence France Presse, \u201eproto\u017ee po\u017e\u00e1dala Radu bezpe\u010dnosti, aby zas\u00e1hla proti jednomu ze zakl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edch \u010dlen\u016f [Ligy], a vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 NATO, aby ni\u010dilo zdroje arabsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed.\u201c<\/p>\n

15. \u00fanora Valn\u00e9 shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed OSN drtivou v\u011bt\u0161inou odhlasovalo, aby Assad odstoupil, ale zem\u011b jako Braz\u00edlie a Indie odsoudily n\u00e1sil\u00ed a daly jasn\u011b najevo, \u017ee odm\u00edtaj\u00ed cokoli, co by bylo spojeno s vojensk\u00fdm z\u00e1sahem nebo s vyzbrojov\u00e1n\u00edm hlavn\u00ed opozi\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edly, Svobodn\u00e9 syrsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy (FSA). Dokonce i Turecko, volaj\u00edc\u00ed po Assadov\u011b rezignaci, za\u010dalo b\u00fdt opatrn\u00e9 a zastavilo rozhovory o vytvo\u0159en\u00ed \u201ebezpe\u010dn\u00fdch z\u00f3n\u201c pod\u00e9l sv\u00fdch hranic se S\u00fdri\u00ed. V\u011bt\u0161ina zem\u00ed m\u00e1 strach, \u017ee syrsk\u00e1 ob\u010dansk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka by se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila do Libanonu, Turecka, Ir\u00e1ku, Jord\u00e1nska a mo\u017en\u00e1 i do st\u00e1t\u016f v Z\u00e1livu.<\/p>\n

A\u010dkoli situace na \u00fazem\u00ed S\u00fdrie je pon\u011bkud nep\u0159ehledn\u00e1, syrsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slu\u017eby stoj\u00ed, jak se zd\u00e1, moment\u00e1ln\u011b na Assadov\u011b stran\u011b. P\u016fjde-li to tak d\u00e1l, vzbou\u0159enci se sice mohou jak\u017e tak\u017e udr\u017eet p\u0159i \u017eivot\u011b, ale bez z\u00e1sahu NATO zven\u010d\u00ed je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by dok\u00e1zali svrhnout re\u017eim. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b Dama\u0161ek ani po roce boj\u016f vzpouru ukon\u010dit nedok\u00e1zal. Zkr\u00e1tka to vypad\u00e1 na slepou uli\u010dku, v kter\u00e9m\u017eto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je sou\u010dasn\u00e1 kampa\u0148 na pomoc vzbou\u0159enc\u016fm a nucen\u00ed presidenta, aby odstoupil, pr\u00e1v\u011b ta \u0161patn\u00e1 strategie, jak\u00e1 zaru\u010den\u011b prodlou\u017e\u00ed krveprolit\u00ed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Katar a n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed sen\u00e1to\u0159i z USA vyz\u00fdvali k vyzbrojen\u00ed FSA; obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 \u0161patn\u00e1 my\u0161lenka, proto\u017ee nen\u00ed zcela jasn\u00e9, co je za\u010d. Neust\u00e1le jdou zpr\u00e1vy, \u017ee v t\u00e9to organizaci je i spousta d\u017eih\u00e1dist\u016f z Ir\u00e1ku, Libye a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b rozdat zbran\u011b lidem, kter\u00e9 nezn\u00e1te, bojovat spole\u010dn\u011b s lidmi, kter\u00e9 nem\u00e1te r\u00e1di, to je vzorec k zopakov\u00e1n\u00ed afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 trag\u00e9die.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Za druh\u00e9, po\u017eadavek zm\u011bny re\u017eimu – a hrozby ob\u017ealovat Assada a ty, kte\u0159\u00ed ho obklopuj\u00ed, z v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch zlo\u010din\u016f – z toho d\u011bl\u00e1 smrtelnou v\u00e1lku. Pro\u010d by m\u011bl Dama\u0161ek d\u011blat kompromisy, kdy\u017e je na konci hry exil a v\u011bzen\u00ed?\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jedin\u00fdm v\u00fdchodiskem ze slep\u00e9 uli\u010dky je vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Rusov\u00e9 se nab\u00eddli jako hostitel\u00e9 rozhovor\u016f, ale sv\u00e1rliv\u00e1 Syrsk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed rada \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee se nebude bavit, dokud Assad neodstoup\u00ed. Postoj USA a GCC je podobn\u00fd. Rozhovory ale budou fungovat jen tehdy, budou-li m\u00edt ob\u011b strany motiv je zah\u00e1jit, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 st\u00e1hnout po\u017eadavek na zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu, odvolat sankce a p\u0159estat mluvit o pomoci FSA.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 u\u017e za\u0161ly ud\u00e1losti p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 daleko, ale v tomto okam\u017eiku se to tak nejev\u00ed. M\u00edsto odsuzov\u00e1n\u00ed by m\u011bli b\u00fdt Rusov\u00e9 a \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 povzbuzeni k vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed o zastaven\u00ed palby, a opozice by se m\u011bla chopit rusk\u00e9 nab\u00eddky hostit rozhovory s Assadovou vl\u00e1dou. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 referendum m\u016f\u017ee poslou\u017eit jako zlomov\u00fd okam\u017eik k p\u0159eps\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fastavy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Aby se tak stalo, budou ale oblastn\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di, USA i Evropsk\u00e1 unie muset p\u0159estat vyu\u017e\u00edvat S\u00fdrii jako bitevn\u00ed pole. Jak \u0159ekl listu New York Times izraelsk\u00fd ministr zpravodajstv\u00ed Dan Meridor, podporovat povst\u00e1n\u00ed v S\u00fdrii bylo d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 proto, \u017ee \u201em\u00e1-li bezbo\u017en\u00e1 aliance \u00cdr\u00e1nu, S\u00fdrie a Hizball\u00e1hu rozbita, je to velice pozitivn\u00ed.\u201c<\/p>\n

Pro koho? Je to o svobod\u011b a demokracii, nebo to je vykalkulovan\u00fd posun na oblastn\u00ed \u0161achovnici?\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

People’s World Weekly (KS USA) 7. 3. 2012, p\u0159eklad Vladim\u00edr Sedl\u00e1\u010dek<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u0159\u00edb\u011bh S\u00fdrie m\u00e1 dv\u011b verze. Podle jedn\u00e9 drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina Sy\u0159an\u016f povstala proti brutalit\u011b zlo\u010dinn\u00e9 diktatury. Vl\u00e1da Bashara al Assada je<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[9],"tags":[53,171,42,172,41,34],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1181"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1181"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1181\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1049"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1181"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1181"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1181"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}