{"id":1183,"date":"2012-04-23T16:50:07","date_gmt":"2012-04-23T14:50:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/2012\/04\/23\/iran-izrael-a-usa-skluz-do-valky\/"},"modified":"2012-04-23T16:50:07","modified_gmt":"2012-04-23T14:50:07","slug":"iran-izrael-a-usa-skluz-do-valky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/2012\/04\/23\/iran-izrael-a-usa-skluz-do-valky\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdr\u00e1n, Izrael a USA: skluz do v\u00e1lky"},"content":{"rendered":"

 \"cpusa\"V\u00e1lky jsou vybojov\u00e1v\u00e1ny proto, \u017ee se n\u011bkdo rozhodne, \u017ee je v jeho z\u00e1jmu je vybojovat. Prvn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka neza\u010dala atent\u00e1tem na arciv\u00e9vodu Ferdinanda, ani ji nespustil syst\u00e9m alianc\u00ed. \u201eN\u00e1hoda\u201c m\u016f\u017ee zah\u00e1jit v\u00e1le\u010dnou etapu, ale nikdo nevyst\u0159el\u00ed, dokud si nebude myslet, \u017ee to je dobr\u00fd n\u00e1pad. Velk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka za\u010dala proto, \u017ee se zapojen\u00e9 zem\u011b rozhodly, \u017ee by na n\u00ed mohly z\u00edskat, bez ohledu na to, jak klamn\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br to byl.   <\/strong><\/p>\n

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M\u00edt toto na mysli je u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9, kdy\u017e se sna\u017e\u00edte ur\u010dit, zda bude v\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Zkr\u00e1tka, jak\u00e9 jsou z\u00e1jmy protagonist\u016f, a jsou dost d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pro tyto n\u00e1rody k tomu, aby ud\u011blaly osudov\u00fd krok do chaosu bitvy?  <\/p>\n

P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm, proto\u017ee tu jsou tu zahrnuty ropa a plyn, v\u00e1lka by m\u011bla celosv\u011btov\u00e9 n\u00e1sledky. \u00cdr\u00e1n dod\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010c\u00edn\u011b kolem patn\u00e1cti procent jej\u00ed spot\u0159eby ropy a pokr\u00fdv\u00e1 10 % spot\u0159eby Indie. Je hlavn\u00edm dodavatelem do Evropy, Turecka, Japonska a Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje, a m\u00e1 t\u0159et\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1soby ropy a druh\u00e9 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1soby plynu na sv\u011bt\u011b. \u00dazk\u00fdm Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem proch\u00e1z\u00ed denn\u011b n\u011bjak\u00fdch 17 milion\u016f barel\u016f, v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 to \u010d\u00e1st sv\u011btov\u00fdch energetick\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek.   <\/p>\n

Zkr\u00e1tka \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edci tohoto dramatu jsou zna\u010dn\u011b rozs\u00e1hl\u00ed a jejich z\u00e1jmy jsou stejn\u011b r\u016fznorod\u00e9 jako jejich n\u00e1rodnosti. <\/p>\n

Podle izraelsk\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra Benjamina Netanjahua \u00cdr\u00e1n vyv\u00edj\u00ed jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, je\u017e p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed pro Izrael \u201eexisten\u010dn\u00ed\u201c hrozbu. Ale prakticky nikdo tomu nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed, masu telavivsk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch s zpravodajsk\u00fdch seskupen\u00ed nevyj\u00edmaje. Jak ned\u00e1vno \u0159ekl b\u00fdval\u00fd izraelsk\u00fd n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk \u0161t\u00e1bu, \u00cdr\u00e1n \u201eexisten\u010dn\u00ed hrozbou pro Izrael nen\u00ed\u201c. Neexistuje d\u016fkaz, \u017ee by \u00cdr\u00e1n vyv\u00edjel bombu, a v\u0161echna jeho jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed jsou moment\u00e1ln\u011b pod \u010dty\u0159iadvacetihodinovou kontrolou inspektor\u016f OSN. Ale Izrael m\u00e1 z\u00e1jem udr\u017eovat St\u0159edn\u00ed v\u00fdchod coby rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, rozpolcen\u00e9 sekt\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdmi rozd\u011blen\u00edmi a ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9 autorit\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdmi vl\u00e1dami a feud\u00e1ln\u00edmi monarchiemi. Existuje-li n\u011bjak\u00e9 pou\u010den\u00ed, kter\u00e9 si Izrael vzal od sv\u00fdch b\u00fdval\u00fdch britsk\u00fdch p\u00e1n\u016f, je to rozd\u011bl a panuj. Mezi jeho nejt\u011bsn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi spojenci byly n\u011bkdej\u0161\u00ed dikt\u00e1torsk\u00e9 re\u017eimy v Egypt\u011b a Tunisku, a s\u00e1m Izrael se te\u010f nach\u00e1z\u00ed na stejn\u00e9 stran\u011b jako reakcion\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 monarchie Rady spolupr\u00e1ce v Z\u00e1livu (GCC): Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Kuvajt, Sjednocen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, Bahrajn, Katar a Om\u00e1n.   <\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n pro Izrael vojenskou hrozbou nen\u00ed, ale je probl\u00e9mem politick\u00fdm, proto\u017ee Tel Aviv vid\u00ed teher\u00e1nsk\u00fd ostr\u00fd nacionalismus a nez\u00e1vislost na USA a Evrop\u011b coby \u017eol\u00edka. \u00cdr\u00e1n je tak\u00e9 sp\u0159a\u017een\u00fd s hlavn\u00edm nep\u0159\u00edtelem Izraele v oblasti, S\u00fdri\u00ed, s n\u00ed\u017e je ofici\u00e1ln\u011b st\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b ve v\u00e1lce, a s libanonsk\u00fdm na \u0160\u00editech stoj\u00edc\u00edm Hizball\u00e1hem, Ham\u00e1sem v Gaze a \u0160\u00edity ovl\u00e1danou vl\u00e1dou v Ir\u00e1ku.    <\/p>\n

V anal\u00fdze Netanjahuovy vl\u00e1dy by \u00fadery na \u00cdr\u00e1n oslabily m\u00edstn\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1tele Izraele, a to za n\u00edzkou cenu. Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 Tel Avivu zobrazuje \u00fader a hr\u016fzostra\u0161n\u00fd \u00fatok, n\u00e1sledovan\u00fd p\u0159\u00edkazem OSN zastavit palbu, s nanejv\u00fd\u0161 p\u011bti sty izraelsk\u00fdmi ob\u011b\u0165mi. \u00cdr\u00e1nci nemaj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161nou kapacitu k odvetn\u00e9mu \u00faderu, a pokud by za\u00fato\u010dili na izraelsk\u00e1 obydlen\u00e1 centra nebo usilovali o uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, zavleklo by to do ud\u00e1lost\u00ed Ameri\u010dany.<\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b takov\u00fd r\u016f\u017eov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je p\u0159\u00e1n\u00edm o trochu v\u00edc ne\u017e zbo\u017en\u00fdm. \u00cdr\u00e1n by se zastaven\u00edm palby pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nesouhlasil – bojoval proti Ir\u00e1ku osm dlouh\u00fdch let – a v\u00e1lka m\u00e1 ve zvyku vykolejit i ty nejlep\u0161\u00ed pl\u00e1ny. Ve skute\u010dn\u00e9m \u017eivot\u011b bude dlouh\u00e1 a krvav\u00e1 a mohla by se p\u0159en\u00e9st do cel\u00e9 oblasti.      <\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159ed\u00e1ci pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed spoustu nabub\u0159elosti o ztrest\u00e1n\u00ed Izraele, kdyby za\u00fato\u010dil, ale za kr\u00e1tkou dobu toho moc neud\u011blaj\u00ed, zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 vzhledem k \u010derven\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1\u0159e na\u010drtnut\u00e9 Washingtonem. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 s\u00edly jsou zastaral\u00e9, a Izraelci maj\u00ed techniku k odst\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed teher\u00e1nsk\u00fdch radar\u016f a protileteck\u00fdch stanovi\u0161\u0165. \u00cdr\u00e1n by nemohl ud\u011blat moc k zastaven\u00ed telavivsk\u00e9 sm\u011bsice leteck\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f, raket z ponorek a balistick\u00fdch raket z Jericha.<\/p>\n

T\u00edm v\u0161\u00edm je \u0159e\u010deno, \u017ee \u201ev\u0161echno je na stole\u201c. Obamova vl\u00e1da se z\u0159ejm\u011b sna\u017e\u00ed se vyst\u0159\u00edhat v\u00e1lky, ale s r\u00fdsuj\u00edc\u00edmi se volbami, nem\u011bl by Washington z\u016fstat stranou? Na stran\u011b ANO jsou hlasy, je\u017e ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 by nepohl\u00ed\u017eeli na novou v\u00e1lku na St\u0159edn\u00edm v\u00fdchod\u011b se sympatiemi. Ale na stran\u011b NE jsou v jednotn\u00e9 formaci Republik\u00e1ni, neokonzervativci a Americko-izraelsk\u00fd v\u00fdbor politick\u00e9 akce, kte\u0159\u00ed tla\u010d\u00ed na st\u0159etnut\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Izraelsk\u00e9 prameny nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Netanyahu mo\u017en\u00e1 po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s t\u00edm, \u017ee americk\u00e9 volby 2012 mohou dotla\u010dit Obamovu vl\u00e1du zp\u011bt do v\u00e1lky a\/nebo zni\u010dit \u0161anci na Obamovo znovuzvolen\u00ed. Nen\u00ed tajemstv\u00edm, \u017ee tihle dva p\u0159ed\u00e1ci se p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nemiluj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ale USA tu tak\u00e9 maj\u00ed sv\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy, ne a\u017e tak odli\u0161n\u00e9 od izraelsk\u00fdch. Americk\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nu se datuje od roku 1951, kdy Teher\u00e1n v roce 1951 sebral Brit\u00e1nii sv\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 z\u00e1soby. CIA pomohla v roce 1953 svrhnout demokraticky zvolenou \u00edr\u00e1nskou vl\u00e1du a dosadila dikt\u00e1tora Shaha. USA tak\u00e9 podporovaly Saddama Hussaina ve v\u00e1lce s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, se S\u00fdri\u00ed maj\u00ed dlouhodob\u011b nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 vztahy a nebav\u00ed se s Hizball\u00e1hem ani s Ham\u00e1sem. M\u00edstn\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9 Tel Avivu jsou i m\u00edstn\u00edmi nep\u0159\u00e1teli Washingtonu.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e monarchov\u00e9 zformovali v roce 1981 GCC, jej\u00edm prvotn\u00edm \u00fa\u010delem bylo vzdorovat \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu vlivu na St\u0159edn\u00edm v\u00fdchod\u011b. S vyu\u017eit\u00edm v\u00edry coby kl\u00ednu GCC podn\u011bcovala sunnisk\u00e9 fundamentalisty k boji proti \u0160\u00edit\u016fm v Libanonu, Ir\u00e1ku a S\u00fdrii a na sv\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed blokovala \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed \u201earabsk\u00e9ho jara\u201c. Kdy\u017e \u0160\u00edit\u00e9 v Bahrajnu za\u010dali protestovat proti nedostatku demokracie a n\u00edzk\u00fdm mzd\u00e1m, GCC tam vtrhla a demonstrace rozehnala. GCC nesouhlas\u00ed s USA a Izraelem, pokud jde o Palestince – i kdy\u017e je opatrn\u00e1, aby neznepokojovala Washington a Tel Aviv- ale je na jejich stran\u011b, pokud jde o S\u00fdrii, Libanon a \u00cdr\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e1 unie se p\u0159idala k sankc\u00edm, a\u010dkoli Francie a N\u011bmecko pou\u017eit\u00ed s\u00edly v\u00fdslovn\u011b odm\u00edtly. Motivace v EU se rozprost\u00edraj\u00ed od touhy Francie obnovit sv\u016fj n\u011bkdej\u0161\u00ed vliv v Libanonu a\u017e k pot\u0159eb\u011b Evropy udr\u017eet prst na energetick\u00e9m hrdle. Zkr\u00e1tka nen\u00ed to v\u0161echno jen o rop\u011b a plynu, ale je toho plno, o co jde, a jak podotkl Alexander Cockburn v listu CounterPunch, ropn\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti by r\u00e1dy vid\u011bly sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed produkce a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cen. V\u00e1lka by splnila oboj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n tu bude ob\u011bt\u00ed, ale najdou se tu i tac\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed by na v\u00e1lce z\u00edskali. \u00datok by sjednotil zemi kolem pr\u00e1v\u011b ne p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 popul\u00e1rn\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, umo\u017enil by revolu\u010dn\u00edm gard\u00e1m rozdrtit opozici a poskytl by Ahmadine\u017e\u00e1dov\u011b vl\u00e1d\u011b z\u00e1minku prosadit snahy o pokr\u00e1cen\u00ed dotac\u00ed na dopravu, bydlen\u00ed a potraviny. V\u00e1lka by stmelila moc nejreak\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch sloek sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho re\u017eimu.<\/p>\n

V tomto dramatu jsou i dal\u0161\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i – jako prvn\u00ed \u010c\u00edna, Rusko, Indie, Turecko a P\u00e1kist\u00e1n, z nich\u017e v\u00e1lku nepodporuje nikdo, ale je ot\u00e1zka, nebudou-li cht\u00edt ud\u00e1losti ovlivnit. Izrael se nakonec m\u016f\u017ee rozhodnout, \u017ee jeho z\u00e1jm\u016fm poslou\u017e\u00ed zah\u00e1jen\u00ed v\u00e1lky, a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se p\u0159idaj\u00ed, proto\u017ee si v\u011bt\u0161inou mysl\u00ed tot\u00e9\u017e.<\/p>\n

Nebo v\u0161echen ten r\u00e1mus a b\u011bsn\u011bn\u00ed nemus\u00ed znamenat nic\u2026 My\u0161lenkou, je\u017e vyvede z nad\u0161en\u00ed, je, \u017ee nejmocn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edci dramatu – Izrael, USA se sv\u00fdmi evropsk\u00fdmi spojenci a Rada pro spolupr\u00e1ci v Z\u00e1livu – maj\u00ed mnoho stejn\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f a sd\u00edlej\u00ed p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee s\u00edla je \u00fa\u010dinn\u00fd zp\u016fsob k dosa\u017een\u00ed n\u011b\u010d\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f. <\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b na takov\u00fdch iluz\u00edch stoj\u00ed trag\u00e9die.<\/p>\n

People’s World Weekly, KS USA (p\u0159eklad Vladim\u00edr Sedl\u00e1\u010dek) <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

 V\u00e1lky jsou vybojov\u00e1v\u00e1ny proto, \u017ee se n\u011bkdo rozhodne, \u017ee je v jeho z\u00e1jmu je vybojovat. Prvn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka neza\u010dala atent\u00e1tem<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1182,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[9],"tags":[171,189,42,172,34],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1183"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1183"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1183\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1182"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1183"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1183"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/novysmer.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1183"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}